The Wagner Group’s Uprising and Its Impact on Russia’s Political Landscape

Yevgeny Prigozhin, an oligarch-turned-military figure leading the Wagner Group, publicly criticised Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, blaming them for Russia’s failures in Ukraine. However, the Kremlin claims no knowledge of any change in Putin’s stance on Shoigu following the rebellion. President Putin denounced the uprising as “betrayal” and “treason,” but he allowed Prigozhin and his forces to go free to avoid internal confrontation and bloodshed.

Under the agreement brokered by Lukashenko, Prigozhin will move to Belarus and will not face prosecution for the armed rebellion charges. The troops who joined him in the uprising will also not be prosecuted. Additionally, fighters from the Wagner Group who did not participate in the rebellion will be offered contracts by Russia’s defense ministry.

The swift reversal of the Wagner Group’s advance and Prigozhin’s decision to accept exile suggest serious negotiations between Lukashenko and Prigozhin behind closed doors. However, the deal puts Prigozhin in a vulnerable position, indicating that trust between him and the Russian top brass is lacking.

Prigozhin singled out Shoigu, Gerasimov and the leadership of the Russian military for threats as he marched on Moscow. His comments did not extend to the broader Russian government or Putin himself. This could be a tactic by Prigozhin seeking to divert blame from himself or protect his own interests amidst mounting international pressure on Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

It could also be part of a broader power struggle within the Russian elite, with different factions vying for influence and control. It is possible that given how poorly the war in Ukraine has gone, and that Putin had already turned on some officials over the lack of results in Ukraine, such as Colonel-General Sergei Beseda, the head of the Fifth Service of the FSB, Prigozhin calculated that Putin may side with him. If this was the case, Prigozhin was wrong.

Russia has a long history of targeting defectors, of which Prigozhin will be well aware.

Modern examples are:

• The poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006. Litvinenko, a former Russian intelligence officer turned critic, was poisoned with a lethal dose of polonium-210, a radioactive substance. The subsequent investigation pointed to the involvement of Russian agents, indicating a deliberate assassination attempt on foreign soil.
• In 2018, the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury, England, shocked the world. Sergei Skripal, a former Russian intelligence officer, had been recruited by British intelligence as a double agent. The poisoning, carried out using a nerve agent, led to an international diplomatic crisis and further solidified Russia’s reputation as a state willing to use extreme measures against defectors.

While an apparent deal has been reached and Prigozhin and the wider Wagner Group will not be charged, Putin is on the record calling the Wagner Group’s march on Moscow a betrayal and treason. Those are difficult words to walk back. It is at least plausible that Prigozhin may have attempts on his life, orchestrated by the Russian state, in future.

With Prigozhin, the alleged financier of the Internet Research Agency (IRA), going into exile in Belarus, the future of the organisation becomes uncertain. The Internet Research Agency gained international attention for its alleged involvement in spreading disinformation and conducting influence campaigns, particularly during the 2016 US presidential election. Prigozhin’s departure from Russia and relocation to Belarus could have several potential implications for the Internet Research Agency.

Prigozhin’s absence may impact the financial support and resources available to the Internet Research Agency. As an oligarch, Prigozhin has been linked to funding various ventures, including the IRA. With his physical distance from the organisation and the growing rift between him and Moscow, it is possible that the level of financial backing and operational support provided to the Internet Research Agency could diminish or cease. This could lead to a decrease in its capacity to carry out large-scale influence campaigns.

Prigozhin’s relocation may also prompt the Russian government to reassess its stance on the Internet Research Agency. While it is unclear how much control Prigozhin had over the organisation, his departure might create an opportunity for the Russian authorities to distance themselves from the IRA and publicly disavow any involvement. This could be a bargaining chip to mitigate international criticism and reduce tensions with foreign governments.

On the flip side, it may mean that another oligarch steps in to continue funding the IRA, or that it is subsumed into existing Russian intelligence agencies.

The exile of Prigozhin, who claims to be taking the Wagner Group with him, could have significant implications for Belarus and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

It is unclear how much of the Wagner Group will side with Prigozhin or take up the offered contracts with the Russian military. Members of Wagner with family in Russia may not want to relocate. But, given Russian’s vindictive past there are question marks over any offered amnesty.

If Prigozhin indeed takes the Wagner Group to Belarus and a large portion of it follows him, it could potentially destabilise the region. Belarus is already grappling with political and social challenges, and the presence of a large private military force controlled by an exile in dispute with Moscow adds another layer of complexity. It could also complicate the relationship between Russia and Belarus, potentially straining their alliance if Moscow perceives the Wagner Group’s continued presence as a threat to its interests.

Regarding the impact on the war in Ukraine, the situation becomes more intricate. If the Wagner Group relocates to Belarus, it could potentially create a new front or shift the dynamics of the conflict. However, Wagner may refuse to take part in the conflict further, given Prigozhin’s disdain of Shoigu and Gerasimov.

It is also unclear how much of Prigozhin’s wealth will be available to him in exile. Prigozhin may need to look for new contracts to fund Wagner and himself, which my be Belarusian contracts or contracts abroad.

Moreover, the involvement of a private military force not directly accountable to any government muddies the waters of the conflict in Ukraine and could hinder future negotiations.

While those possible negotiations appear unlikely at this stage, events coming close to a coup did just take place in Russia. If power structures continue to fray, or public support for the power structures continues to erode, it is possible that Putin could be brought to the negotiating table if he’s able to frame it as some sort of victory. Alternatively, in a more extreme scenario, the Russian leadership may change.

However, it does seem at least for the moment that Defense Minister Shoigu and General Gerasimov, along with the Russian military, are behind Putin.

The uprising led by the Wagner Group and its subsequent reversal have highlighted divisions within Russia’s military and raised questions about President Putin’s grip on power. The agreement allowing Prigozhin to go into exile and granting amnesty to the rebel fighters reflects an attempt to avoid further bloodshed and internal confrontation, but it is unclear how far that attempt will go. The developments surrounding the Wagner Group’s mutiny will undoubtedly shape Russia’s political landscape and raise discussions about the stability of Putin’s regime.

Russian authorities put out statements earlier today claiming that Yevgeny Prigozhin, along with nine other people, perished in a private jet crash just under 300 kilometers north of Moscow. Prigozhin’s death is still to be verified by the international press.

It was two months ago, almost to the day, that Prigozhin launched his ill fated coup.

This blog post stated at the time that it is at least plausible that Prigozhin may have attempts on his life, orchestrated by the Russian state, in future. The cause of the crash is unknown at this stage.